Main orgainzed by the Swedish Chamber of Commerce in China, in collaboration with China Macro Group (CMG), we are pleased to invite you to attend our seminar in Shanghai on 11th Nov. to learn more about China's upcoming 15th National Five-Year Plan and how will that potentially influence your business operation in China.
The CCP Central Committee's 4th Plenary Session will convene from 20–23 October 2025. Upon its conclusion, the Committee is expected to release the official "Proposition" (建议) outlining the core substance of China's upcoming 15th National Five-Year Plan (2026–2030; FYP). The plan will be formally endorsed at the National People's Congress (NPC) in March 2026 and subsequently published in full.
While the 14th FYP (2021–2025) was positioned as the most "important strategic shift" in China's development policymaking since the start of the reform and opening-up period in 1978, the forthcoming 15th FYP—the second last plan before Chinese leaders want to "basically achieve socialist modernization" in 2035 —is not expected to alter current policy trajectories. Instead, it will focus on refining, prioritizing and rebalancing China's development and reform policymaking within the existing "Dual Circulation" policy framework.
This framework, first created in 2020 responding to the cumulative effects especially of how Beijing sees Brexit and Trump 1.0, the trade war and the Covid pandemic, continues to serve as China's top-level economic and policy blueprint. It rests on six policy pillars: "domestic demand system", social rebalancing, "de-risking", "high-level opening-up", market-oriented reforms and industrial upgrading
An analysis of the CCP Politburo's communication on 29th September announcing the 4th Plenum and the upcoming 15th FYP "proposition", which is the first official policy text offering a first glimpse into the 15th FYP's substance, shows programmatic focus on social policy whereas the concrete policy concepts mentioned put priority on industrial upgrading and market reforms. This is, however, in our reading not a conflict, as China's "bet" on "emerging" and "future industries" is supposed to allow China to further climb the value chain, raise productivity and incomes to eventually drive household consumption. In other words, China keeps using an industrial lever to support the transition to a consumption-led economy.
Further, we expect that the 15th YP will also integrate newer policy concepts such as "anti-involution" (反内卷), "AI+" or "investing in people" (投资于人). In regard to "investing in people", the next FYP is expected – on top of its industrial logic – to expand social security and enhance urban livability. Finally, we also expect a de-emphasis within China's development-security paradigm as it sees progress achieved in critical "de-risking" areas for China's economy during the 14th FYP period.
Against this backdrop, in collaboration with China Macro Group (CMG), a specialized European management consulting and research firm, aims to provide in-depth analysis and interpretation of the "Proposition" document alongside other key current macro influencing factors such as macroeconomics and geopolitics, discuss its strategic implications for European businesses operating in China, and review key geopolitical factors shaping European cross-border commercial engagement.
Welcome to join us!
Date
11 November, 2025 (Tuesday)
Time
16:00 - 17:30 (Beijing Time)
Language
English
Speakers:
Markus Herrmann Chen, Co-Founder and Managing Director, China Macro Group
Alex Zhou, Consultant, China Macro Group
Price
Member: RMB 100
Non-Member: RMB 200
Language
English
Venue
Shanghai, TBC...
Cancellation Policy
If you cannot attend a training for which you have registered, please cancel your registration no later than three (3) business days prior to the event. If you fail to notify us of your cancellation in a timely fashion, you will be charged for the training costs.
Fapiao (VAT Invoice)
Apply fapiao when purchasing a ticket, by inputting the Chinese entity name and tax ID (if the title is wrong, you will be unable to receive the Fapaio). Make sure your IT has whitelisted the domain "XX@hlzrkj.xyz. E-Fapiao will be sent to your e-mail within 7 days after completed event (check spam folder). If the fapiao can not be received, please provide an alternative email or contact finance@swedcham.cn.
Speakers
Markus Herrmann
Chen
Co-Founder & Managing Director of China Macro Group
Markus is a cross-cultural China analyst, consultant and mediator, primarily engaged in the Europe-China context advising corporate and investment sectors holistically on key management issues including strategy, partnerships, localization, negotiations, resilience and governmental affairs, against the backdrop of evolving market, policy and geoeconomic factors shaping the Chinese market.
Prior to CMG, Markus worked as Government Affairs Director with Bayer MaterialScience in China and as Management Consultant with Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in its Shanghai, Hong Kong and Zurich offices. Moreover, he is the Strategic Advisor Europe to Caixin Global, China’s leading financial media group, and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Expert Network, plus he is further engaged in the advisory board of CEIBS Zurich (Europe) and acts as Vice-President of the Swiss Chinese Chamber of Commerce (SCCC).
Markus holds law degrees with specialization in public policy, as well as public-, international- and WTO-law from the Universities of Geneva and Berne. Plus, he studied Chinese at Peking University as a resident student and holds a Certificate of Advanced Studies (CAS) from the University of Zurich in applied ethics.
Alex Zhou
Consultant at China Macro Group
Alex is specialized in tracking and analyzing China’s macro policymaking (development and reform policymaking), economic policymaking (industrial, S&T, finance, infrastructure and data) as well as macroeconomic management. Prior to CMG, Alex worked for the Postal Savings Bank of China (HQ), the International Data Corporation (Beijing) as well as Liquidity Capital Co., Ltd., a tech-investor, conducting market and company research to evaluate investment opportunities in banking, ICT, enterprise services and Fintech.
Alex holds a Master's Degree in International Political Economy from Nanyang Technological University Singapore, as well as a Master's Degree in European and Chinese Business Management from the University of Zurich.
Sponsors and Partners
Corporate Gold Partners
A special thanks to our Corporate Gold Partners for supporting the Swedish business community in China.
Corporate Silver Partners
A special thanks to our Corporate Silver Partners for supporting the Swedish business community in China.
PSU (China) Consulting Co., Ltd.
PSU was established 2006 and is one of the leading Security Consultancies in China that has the experience, insight and resources to help companies and organisations to deal with security related issues such as business intelligence, security audits, investigations and crisis management connected to corporate, brands and individuals.
http://www.psuchina.com.cn/
